Chapter 13 · Reform Dividends

Reform Dividends

The savings and revenue Ontario captures when its government builds, taxes, and works competently.

Net savings · $3.0B–$9.6B2 goals4 commitments
At a glance

The goals

Goal 1

Spending Reform Dividends

Lower the cost of building and running Ontario's government and infrastructure to global benchmarks.

Goal 2

Revenue Reform Dividends

Capture the revenue lift from a simpler tax code and from accelerated private investment.

The case

Why this, why now

Every platform eventually meets the same question: how will you pay for it? This section is most of the answer, and it is the least glamorous idea in the book. When a government builds at globally competitive costs instead of paying several times the going rate, runs leaner administration, simplifies a tangled tax code, and lets people build homes and start businesses without losing years to process, it does not just deliver better. It recovers real money.

None of that comes from new taxes, or from cutting the services people rely on. It comes from competence. These are not extra promises stacked on top of the platform. They are the savings the reforms throughout it produce, counted once, measured against international benchmarks, and never claimed twice.

That is what keeps the rest of this document honest. The discipline is what pays for the ambition. A province that learns to build and govern well can afford to do big things again. We are betting that competence pays, because it does.

The plan

What we'll do

Spending Reform Dividends2 commitments · +$1.1B to +$3.7B

Capture savings from building infrastructure at global benchmarks instead of two to four times the cost, and from a smaller, more capable public service as administrative load is reduced through digitization, regulatory simplification, and back-office consolidation.

Build infrastructure at global benchmarks. Procurement reform, standard designs, and continuous-build delivery cut Ontario's infrastructure construction costs from 2 to 4 times global benchmarks toward what peer jurisdictions actually pay.
Run a smaller, more capable public service. Regulatory simplification, digitization, and back-office consolidation reduce administrative load. Recoverable savings come from natural attrition, not layoffs.
Revenue Reform Dividends2 commitments · +$1.9B to +$5.9B

Capture revenue lift from a simpler tax code and modern administration, plus the crowding-in revenue from housing starts, business formation, and capital investment that permitting and zoning reform unlocks.

Lift tax compliance through a simpler tax code and modern administration. Cleaner rules and better technology consistently lift revenue by 1 to 3 percent in peer jurisdictions. Ontario currently lacks the simplification and administrative modernization to capture this.
Crowd in revenue from accelerated housing, business, and investment. Permitting reform, zoning enablement, and rapid permitting zones do not raise taxes; they accelerate private activity that the province already taxes. More housing, more business, and more capital all flow through HST, PIT, MLTT, and CIT.
What it costs

The fiscal picture

GoalLowerUpper
Total — Reform Dividends+$3.0B+$9.6B
Spending Reform Dividends+$1.1B+$3.7B
Revenue Reform Dividends+$1.9B+$5.9B

Net budgetary impact over the Ontario Budget 2026 baseline. These are conservative ranges with international benchmarks. They are not double-counted in any individual policy section.

Financial assumptions — how every number was derived Line-by-line derivations for each estimate

Detail on how each estimate was derived. All figures represent net budgetary impact over the Ontario Budget 2026 baseline. These dividends are downstream effects of policy commitments made elsewhere in the platform; they are not separately counted in any other section.

Spending Reform Dividends · +$1.1B to +$3.7B
IdeaLowerUpperHow it was estimated
Build infrastructure at global benchmarks.+$800M+$2.5BA 10-25% cost reduction on $8B/yr of unawarded transit and highway capital, phased from year three to years five-seven. Ontario pays $400-700M/km for subways and light rail against $150-300M/km in peer jurisdictions (Eno Center, Transit Costs Project).
Run a smaller, more capable public service.+$300M+$1.2BNot replacing 3% of administrative staff who leave the Ontario Public Service over four years (about 4,000 positions at $75,000 each) yields $300M/yr; extending to 5-7% across the OPS plus school boards and agencies yields $1.2B/yr. All from natural turnover, no layoffs, as in the UK, New Zealand, and Australia.
Revenue Reform Dividends · +$1.9B to +$5.9B
IdeaLowerUpperHow it was estimated
Lift tax compliance through a simpler tax code and modern administration.+$1.1B+$3.4BA 0.5-1.5% lift on Ontario's $226B revenue base ($1.1-3.4B/yr) from simplifying income, corporate, health, and payroll taxes, better digital tools, and removing carve-outs. The OECD and CRA find such reforms lift revenue 1-3% in peer jurisdictions.
Crowd in revenue from accelerated housing, business, and investment.+$800M+$2.5B25,000 extra housing starts a year at about $30,000 each in provincial revenue (sales tax share, construction income tax, land transfer tax) gives $800M/yr; 75,000 starts, closing half the gap to the 1.5 million home target, plus unlocked business investment gives $2.5B/yr.
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